In the upcoming northeast monsoon, Tamil Nadu is likely to experience 12% more rainfall than the normal, as said by the Deputy Director General of Meteorology, S. Balachandran. The long period average for the State was pegged at 44cm based on the data between 1951-2000. The onset depends on the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which seems to be withdrawing slowly and from other regions like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Experts say that a weak southwest monsoon is often associated with a favourable northeast monsoon over the State. Weather expert Y.E.A Raj said that north coastal Tamil Nadu was likely to experience 50-60% above normal rainfall during the oncoming monsoon, citing the consensus forecast outlook of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.
The south coastal regions may witness below-average rains, with the southern oscillation, a global weather phenomenon, also slightly favouring the performance of the northeast monsoons. Going by the data for the past 100 years, the northeast monsoon has been either above normal or excess on most of the years when the southwest monsoon ended with a deficit of 5 to 10%. The State has had a good northeast monsoon during most of the El-Nino years, another global phenomenon.
Meteorologists also note that a feeble trough is likely to develop into a low pressure area that may bring moderate rainfall in many areas. Till then, areas experiencing a relatively hot weather, particularly interior Tamil Nadu, may only get patchy rains. A trough running from Southwest Bay of Bengal to Maharashtra through Tamil Nadu may bring thundershowers or rains in few places till Wednesday.
Tags : #India#Environment#Monsoon