The President of the Federation of Indian Export Organization (FIEO), Ganesh Kumar Gupta, said on Wednesday that unlike the first five months of the current fiscal year, the exports are likely to go downhill in the coming months. The exports did well in the first half of the year. However, the same trend is likely to discontinue in the near future. The reasons behind such an expected downfall in the exports are various domestic as well as global factors.
Growth in the global trade has always influenced Indian exports. The global trade forecast’s sliding from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2019 is said to have adverse impacts on the exports from India. The growth for September to November shall be a crucial subject for observation because the exports in these months reached 25% growth last year. Therefore, there would be a disadvantage of high base effect as per Ganesh Gupta. Also, payment problems in Venezula are affecting exports. Along with that, sanctions on Iran and banking restrictions on a large number of nations including Sudan, Syria, Iraq and Libya is creating problems. Huge depreciation of currencies of Argentina, Russia, South Africa and Brazil are adding to the obstacles present in the way of increase in exports. As far as domestic front is concerned, the flow of credit received by the export sector is emerging as a huge challenge with its decline over 41% in April-June alone.
This needs to be addressed and resolved immediately along with GST refund pendency, as per Gupta. Despite this, it is expected that India’s exports would reach to USD 350 billion in the fiscal year 2018-19. If last year trend repeats itself, where the exports fell by 0.66% in March but were up again in August by 16.3%, the exports this year can cover up for the expected dip.
Tags : #FIEO #ExportGrowth #ComingMonths #Slowdown #GlobaTrade #Fiscal