News By/Courtesy: Yash Keshari | 28 May 2020 19:05pm IST

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has cut international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2020 to fraction of what they were a year ago.
  • This is by far the worst result and would end 10 years of continuous reliable development since the 2009 financial crisis.
  • Countless challenges remain ahead, starting with the mysterious duration of the pandemic and travel limitations, in a context of global economic depression.

 
As of now, the world is facing an unparalleled global health, social, and economic emergency with the COVID-19 pandemic. With airplanes on the ground, hotels closed and travel restrictions put in place in all countries around the world, travel, and tourism are among the worst affected sectors of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has cut international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2020 to a fraction of what they were a year ago which has proved an unprecedented blow to the tourism sector. There twice decreases by 22% in Q1 2020, with arrivals in March down by 57%. The above implies a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about USD 80 billion in revenues.
Because of the high level of uncertainty, prospects for the year have downgraded several times since the outbreak.
The impact made from January to March 2020 and the present scenario
As per the report of UNWTO’s on COVID – 19 Related to travel restrictions (20th April),
  • 100% of all worldwide destinations have announced travel restrictions
  • 45% have totally or partly locked their borders for tourists.
  • 30% have postponed totally or partly international flights.
  • 18% are closing the borders in a more distinguished way by banning the entry for travelers from specific states of origin.
The present scenarios point to a decline of 58% - 78% in global tourist arrivals for the year, relying on the swiftness of the containment, and the period of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain (the above scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as such). 
The following scenario assumptions imitate three probable arrangements of the monthly change in arrivals from April to December 2020:
If travel limitations start to be lifted and national borders opened -
  • In early July (Scenario 1: -58%);
  • In early September (Scenario 2: -70%); or
  • In early December (Scenario 3: -78%)
These scenarios may endanger 100 to 120 million tourism jobs at risk.
In the historical series of international tourism since 1950, this is by far the worst result and would end 10 years of continuous reliable development since the 2009 financial crisis.
Summing up
The three scenarios of international tourism in 2020, presented as above are not predictions and should not be understood as such. They are based on available tourism data for January-March and other information such as the shutdown of all national borders as of late April. However, this is subject to high uncertainty.
The three scenarios lights to three paces of stabilization in which monthly declines in arrivals start to retreat in those particular months and there is no real or long-lasting worsening of the pandemic that affects travel conditions afterward. All three scenarios reflect declines in arrivals through December 2020, albeit to dissimilar extents.
Different patterns of recovery for the different world regions are the basis of the above scenarios. Asia and the Pacific see an alteration in trend earlier, as the pandemic hit Asia before other regions and seasonality in Asia is less important than in other regions where the majority of demand takes place in June-September.
Still, countless challenges remain ahead, starting with the mysterious duration of the pandemic and travel limitations, in a context of global economic depression. To mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and to fuel the recovery of the tourism sector, countries around the world are executing a range of measures.
Source: World Tourism Organisation

THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT INTEND TO HURT THE SENTIMENTS OF ANY INDIVIDUAL, COMMUNITY, SECT, OR RELIGION ETCETERA. THIS ARTICLE IS BASED PURELY ON THE AUTHOR'S PERSONAL VIEWS AND OPINIONS IN THE EXERCISE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL RIGHT GUARANTEED UNDER ARTICLE 19(1)(A) AND OTHER RELATED LAWS BEING FORCE IN INDIA, FOR THE TIME BEING.

Section Editor: Pushpit Singh | 03 Jun 2020 14:20pm IST


Tags : Tourism, International tourism, Global, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Tourist

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