India active cases in the ongoing second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic could peak at 38-48 lakh between May 14-18. The new infections daily are likely to hit a high of 4.4 lakh from May 4-8, as per a mathematical model by IIT scientists who have revised their projections upwards. India on Monday witnessed a single-day surge of 3,52,991 (3.52 lakh) COVID-19 infections and 2,812 fatalities with 28,13,658 (28.13 lakh) active cases. The scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad used the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach' (SUTRA) model to forecast that active cases are likely to rise further by over 10 lakh by mid-May. Early April, their modelling technique projected that the active infections in India would peak by April 15, which did not happen. Maninder Agrawal, a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, stated that this time, he has also computed the minimum and maximum for predicted values and posted it. The professor is reasonably confident that the actual values will be restricted within the min and max values stated.
Maninder Agrawal posted the new peak numbers for active and new COVID cases on Twitter. Peak timing was mentioned from May 14-18 for active infections, and May 4-8 was mentioned for new infections. The Peak value is estimated between 38-48 lakhs for active infections and between 3.4 to 4.4 lakhs for new infections. Maninder Agrawal explained the changing projections of the model over time. He stated that the main reason is that there is an ongoing slow drift in parameter values of the current phase for India. Therefore, this is making the guess of the correct values difficult. The scientists in their study, which is yet to be published, stated several novel features in the SUTRA model. At the same time, previous papers divided India's patient population into asymptomatic and Infected. The new model also records several asymptomatic patients that could be detected due to contact tracing and other such protocols. The professor discussed the three primary parameters that the SUTRA model uses to forecast the course of the pandemic. The first being beta, also known as contract rate, which measures how many people an infected person infects per day. The other two parameters being ‘reach', which is a measure of the level of exposure of the population to the pandemic, and ‘epsilon' which is the ratio of the detected and undetected cases.
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